Thursday, April 24, 2014

On Money

Yes Sam, as Einstein said "everything is relative".

We're living in a peaceful time (at least in our world). We should be considered fortunate and those who were born in the US are lottery winners. My parents went thru Japanese brutal invasion and their parents thru China's brutal government, and their grandparents went thru the semi colonization by the 8 foreign devils after the Opium Wars.

My book writing contributes less than 1% of my income but takes up 50% of my time. It is a hobby at best. However, holding of a printed book written by me rewards me more than any gold in the world.

I'm frugal as I went thru harder time. I'm rich when I compare my negative account balance when I started. As I said on China, we should compare ourselves with what we're 10, 20 and 30 years ago. However, money is not the key to life and happiness is. After we've the basics, money is not important.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

On China

A good percent of Chinese GDP is due to infrastructure construction. China reaches the point that they do not need more new airports, roads (public transportation should be encouraged), bridges...

What they should do is:

1. Calculate each project to see whether it is cost effective or not. Business 101! Projects are not the tools to alleviate employment problem which could generate social unrest if not successful. The current mega project in connecting cities in Pearl Delta is too mega.

2. Living standard could be improved without GDP growth such as water quality, air quality, reliable food quality...

3. More regulations (just opposite to what the US should do) on construction, corruption (President Xi has been doing a great job), food quality, stock market... China has been relatively new to capitalist system. They have been learning fast, but not fast enough.

You learn from what other countries suffer, not from when you have problems.

4. Settle islet disputes. Obama seems to side with Japan, Philippine... It would lead the world to another secular bear market. You hear from here first.

However, if you compare China 10, 20 and 30 years, it grows by leaps and bounds and millions have been lifted from poverty (i.e. starving to death) which is the first human right above freedom.

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Reply comments to comments

GDP and its growth are not good yardsticks for a country - a happy meter is (I'm still perfecting its construction :)).

Infrastructure should grow, but benefit should be calculated. The days of using half the world's steel and/or cement should be long gone.

BJ is enhancing its sub way system that could move it to the top of the world in a few years. All the subway systems in China are clean, modern and safe. It makes NYC's subway system a stone age structure (but it still works).

BJ had the first subway in Asia, I guess. It was not due to solving the transportation problem (a fleet of 500 buses then would do). It was used for war shelters against Russia, I guess again.

Tier 3 and below cities need to start subway system. However, compared to India who had the first subway system not too long ago in her biggest city, China has been way ahead, not counting the high-speed trains.

Water cleaning facilities are not a major problem. They need to control illegal dumping by the factories that are backed up by local corrupt governments. Many factories with high pollution should be shut down.

Sam, I have to disagree with you with Hong Kong's brand of democracy. Some make sense and some do not. They seem to be a bunch of hippies protecting in the 60s (the world has not been fair to everyone since it was created). There must be many 'professional' protesters.

Hong Kong is part of China and within 50 years it is no different than the rest of China. China wants to give them some 'liberty' to set up an example for Taiwan to return to the mother land.

Contrary to popular belief, minority in China have far better deals. For example, they do not have one-child policy restriction. So far, they give more to Tibet than it gets back. When I took the three-gorges cruise from SH to inland, I saw most minorities' customs, dances, songs...were preserved at least to us, the tourists.

Thursday, January 2, 2014

All my books



Debunk the Myths in Investing

The market timing described in this book has been proven to detect market plunges and when to reenter the market for the last two plunges. It will detect the next one. Hopefully it will give us enough time to act on the last two. It depends on data, so it will not detect the peaks and bottoms precisely. However, it will spare you for further losses and tell you when to reenter the market for profits.

I bet you’ll be a better investor by reading one of my books. First start with “Debunk the Myths in Investing” (aka Myths) and then read “Scoring Stocks”. You may be interested in Profit from Insider Trading (aka Insider).  They are summarized as:

Book
Development
PDF1
Kindle2
Paperback
Size (6*9)4
Last Update
Myths

$9.99
$19.99
499
10/2013
   More info:3
Click here
Click here
Click here


Scoring     

$6.99
$11.35
115
10/2013
  More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here


Insider      

$8.95
$13.95
133
12/2013
  More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here


Best 2014 

$7.95
$9.95
74
12/2013
  More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here




The first book is the foundation of the series “Debunk the Myths in Investing” (same title as this book). By the time you finish the series, most if not all the topics in investing should have been covered. “Myths” is quite lengthy with 499 pages and it would lose its focus if “Scoring Stocks” and/or Insider were part of this book even they have several common chapters copied from Myths.

Other books

I continued to write several books with different target audiences and different markets. Many chapters are copied from “Myths”. The books are:

·         Debunk the Myths in Investing for Couch Potatoes.
This is a simplified version of Myths with stock analysis taken out. When we do not have time to analyze stocks, buy ETFs and / or sector funds. Market timing is included.

·         Swing Trading: High profit and low risk.
This is a simplified version of Myths with chapters on swing traders. You do not need Myths if you already have it.

·         Best Stocks in 2014, According to Me.
They are about 132 stocks recommended by me.  The list was created in Dec. 15, 2013.

The following could make a second and alternate series together: Market Timing, Scoring Stocks (in both Series), Finding Stocks, Insider (in both series) and Swing Trading. It competes with books with similar book titles. They may be moved to the primary series when they’re updated enough. Market Timing and Finding Stocks already have at least one new chapter that would be useful for fund managers or rich retail investors.

·         Market Timing: Profitable, Predictable and Protective.
If you have Myths or Myths for Couch Potatoes, currently most retail investors do not need this book.

·         Finding Stocks: Screens and Strategies.
It has several new chapters such as monitoring and ranking the performances of screens.

·         Swing Trading: High Profit and Low Risk
This book is different than the Couch Potatoes. It includes everything a swing trader needs to trade stocks. It also has some chapters from Market Timing and Finding Stocks.

·         Global Economies for Investors.
When you invest in foreign countries, you should understand the country. It describes our current state of the economy and that of China. Currently most articles are copied from Myths and Nations.

·         A Nation of No Losers.
It is a political satire on USA and China.

They are summarized in the following table.

Book
Development PDF1
Kindle2
Paperback
Size (6*9)4
Last Update
Myths for Couch

$6.95
$9.95
190
10/2013
   More info:3
Click here
Click here
Click here


Market Timing

$7.95
$12.95
135
10/2013
   More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here


Finding Stocks

$7.95
$12.95
135
10/2013
   More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here


Swing Trading

$8.95
$13.95
162
12/2013
   More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here








A Nation of No Losers

$3.00
$10.95
280
07/2013
   More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here


Global economies for investors

$6.99
$9.95
154
1/2014
   More info:
Click here
Click here
Click here




Excellent gifts

My books could make your friends and family members better investors themselves. No gift wrap and shipping for digital books especially if they live far away from you. Christmas is coming soon. My choice is the paper copy of “Debunk the Myths in Investing” and “Scoring Stocks” from amazon.com. This fits into the saying “gifts keep on gifting forever” and they will thank you for life.

My books and my service are available free or at my cost to all charitable organizations. Send your request to pow_tony@yahoo.com



Footnotes

1 Development PDF.
It is a development version over the corresponding production version which is being sold in Amazon.com. It is a preview and review version with very limited distribution. It is distributed in PDF format, so all the computers and tablets can read it. Due to Kindle running on PCs and most tablets, we discontinue PDF versions as of 1/2014.
2 Kindle.
You can load Kindle in an iPad.
3 More info.
You can click the link to obtain more information about the book and its table of content.
4 Size is approximate.

Disclaimer

All info is subject to change without notice.
Do not gamble money that you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.
All information is believed to be accurate, but there it is not guaranteed. All the strategies described have no guarantee that they will make money and they may lose money. Do not trade without doing due diligence and be warned that most data would be obsolete.
All my articles and the associated data are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor or a tax professional. Seek one before you make any investment decision.

I try my best effort to ensure the accuracy of my articles. Data also from different sources was believed to be accurate. However, there is no guarantee that they are accurate and suitable for the current market conditions and /or your individual situations.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

How to detect market plunges



No one including all the Federal Reserve chair men and all the Nobel-Prize winners in economics can predict market plunges. Many predicted correctly market crashes by pure luck and some even get Nobel Prizes and become famous. There is no model and formula to predict market plunges except my simple chart described in this book. 

It works for the last two market plunges and hopefully it will work to the next market plunge. The chart depends on the falling stock prices, so it will not detect the bottoms and peaks precisely, but it will prevent further losses and reenter the market for larger gains. The chart is very simple to use and there is nothing to buy or subscribe.




How to detect market plunges



 Exit the market when S&P 500 index is below the red line and reenter the market when it is above the red line.
.
Market Plunge
Peak
Bottom
Exit
Reenter
2000
08/28/00
09/20/02
10/01/00
06/01/03
2007
10/12/07
03/06/09
02/01/08
09/01/09



08/01/11
11/01/11

I was shocked by the incredible return by using simple market timing (exit and reenter the market only 3 times from 2000 to 2013).

Summary info:
.
S&P 500
1-2000 to 9-2013
With Market Timing
Without Market Timing
Better
500%

Gain
1,000
167
Gain %
68%
11%
Annualized gained
5%
1%
Days
4,959
4,959

Click here on how I calculated the returns. Actually it is far better than 500% by buying contra ETFs in existing the stock market.

It will detect the next market plunge. It is based on the stock prices, so it will not detect the peaks and bottoms precisely. It will prevent bigger losses. Hopefully it will give us ample of time to react as the last two. It will not be as effective if many follow the same chart.

Order info.: Gifts keep on gifting for life. Click here or

Amazon.com: $19.99 for the paperback (499 pages) or $9.99 for the Kindle version.
Add “Scoring Stocks”.
$9.99 PDF http://ebtonypow.blogspot.com