Sunday, February 14, 2016

Google must be joking

Yesterday I had over 850 views in this blog. It happened before. Normally I have 10 to 300 hits per day depending on whether I promote my blog such as posting the link in Seeking Alpha or Market Watch. Facebook is too limited.

It is not possible for 850 or more views. I believe the record is about 400 after promoting the link in several sites. The number of hits does not usually translate to selling my books to my limited knowledge. I do not know where my buyers find my book. It is marketing. I enjoy all the phases of creating a product. Well, the time spent is not worth it unless it is for fun.

BTW, I believe every investor should have a book to record his/her own experiences and include a trade plan to follow. I do not advise folks to write and publish a book unless it is for fun. The effort does not pay back from one who has over 50 books. I believe it is a challenge to do sth I would remotely do.

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Kindle vs Paperback

I ordered my own Complete the Art of Investing myself yesterday.

The $10 Kindle vs. the $25 paperback.
The royalties to me are about the same (about $7). So far most of my sales are Kindle version. The paperback version has the full version from Book 1 to Book 7 and it also includes the important articles from then on. It is not economically and technically feasible to print and bind over 800 pages. Amazon has a match box feature that basically you get my Kindle version free when you buy the printed copy from Amazon.

The original format of the book is based on the printed copy. Hence the format in the Kindle may not be always right. It is hard to fix them even now I've  separated them into two versions. The Kindle version deals with different screen formats and all Kindle readers are not the same.

Another advantage of the Kindle version is you can jump to a referenced link to a web page and/or a book location. I used to have 50 and 50 for the two formats. Now, the Kindle version is winning.

The 70% royalty  is generous to the authors for Kindle books. I have a lot of sales from buyers browsing Amazon's site. If I have 100 sales a month, it would be too time-consuming to handle all the orders. With Amazon, I do nothing. In addition, Amazon provides all the tools to build a book. For some books that I can derive from the Complete The Art of Investing, it takes me about two hours or less to publish a book without counting the waiting time from Amazon.

There will be no major books for a long while. I have to go back full time to investing. The income from book sales is not much. It is still fine for me as I benefit a lot in writing these investing books. Time to be a reader and be disciplined to follow what I preach. Now, the shoe maker can have time to make shoes for his own children.

If you have not used the Kindle reader, try it out. There are many free books for samples.

If you have some difficulties in using it, here are some hints.

Most graphs and tables are in landscape orientation (recommended for small screens) for both paperback and e-readers. Some graphs may not be displayed adequately on a small screen of an e-reader. E-readers may be available in the current version of Windows, so you can read e-books on the larger screen of your PC. For better orientation, just flip the e-readers 90 degrees. Some reader lets you select a table or a graph to display it to fit the screen.

A link is usually included for the most screens. Copy it to your browser to display the graphs on your PC if desirable. Instructions on how to produce some graphs are provided as you should try them out. One example is how to produce a chart on detecting market crashes.

The font size (Ctrl Minus for browser implementation of e-readers) and line spacing of most e-book formats can be adjusted. The unknown, special character is the “smiling face” that the current Kindle does not convert correctly as of this writing.

Friday, February 12, 2016

How to make a million?

The following is done by 'professionals', so do not try it at home.

I will ask Bank Of Japan to loan worth about $1M USD.

First they give me money for giving me money. What a country!
I would spread the loan into the following evenly

- Short-term US treasuries. Get some positive (better than negative) interest and bet on potential   appreciation in USD over Japan's yen.
 Risk: US interest rate may be higher, hence making my US treasuries depreciate.
- High-yield (better word for junk) bonds with at least BBB rating.
- Contra ETF to SPY.
- Oil.
- Gold. Switch all to oil if oil dips to $20 per barrel.

Exit strategy: Skip town if it does not work out. Write a book and make a million.

If it works, I will write a book and make a million. No matter what, I have a million dollar in book sales.

It is a complete strategy: What/why/who, diversity, risk analysis and exit strategy.

Thks afternoon lap has been too sweet and time to wake up to face the cruel reality.

Thursday, February 11, 2016

The fisherman and the sea

The smart fisherman (investor) would not venture out (buy stocks) to the stormy sea (the risky market) according to the weather forecast (technical indicator). He is spending his time in mending his nets (testing his strategies) until the weather forecast (technical indicator) tells him to return.

Recently I evaluated 10 stocks. The best return is GPRO about 10% up in two or three weeks but the rest are losers. I prefer to rise with the tide.

Comments on today's financial news

* 2015 ( and 2016 likely) is the year when the stock pickers died. Ackman is the latest casualty. I had published a book on Buffett 3 years ago not to invest with the legend (esp. past legend). The readers would have avoided the poor returns. I had many ridicules on it and now who is laughing (or crying)?
* There was a star in a hedge fund one year and next year he had to be let go due to poor performance. My theory: If they reached the top, they must have taken excessive risk. It is the same for most stock competitions. That's why turtle investors win the race.
* Cisco stocks were given to my grand children for long-term holds. It was recommended in my SA article that I claimed to have the best one-year performance for 5 or more stocks. Any challenge?
* I followed Mylan due to its rise. I did not invest on it. Their concept of generic drugs can be copied. The new acquisitions are poison pills to prevent hostile takeovers. When the music ends and there is no chair available, they fall.**C

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Trump's Great Wall

Obviously Trump has not read my book.

There is no need to build a wall. You just punish the employers for hiring illegals (it is illegal to hire illegals). However, you need to make the able welfare recipients to take those jobs no one wants but the illegals.

Some business man (not me) will blow up one part of the wall and charge $100 per head to enter this land of opportunity or just dig a small tunnel to bypass the wall. Trump, tell me how you trump it.


Monday, February 8, 2016

Economy Cycle 102

More jobs = Good economy = Hike interest rate = Bad market = Less consumer spending = Fewer jobs =Bad market = Lower interest rat = Good market = More jobs...