Monday, October 6, 2014

Rant III

Not too creative in the title. It responds to today's news at WSB in SA.

* Brazil's social problems, political problems...are rooted from its economy which depends on China buying its rich natural resources.

* So is Hong Kong with China as their parents. Glad it is over and Central Square does not turn into Tienamen Square. Will check whether I've bought EWH.

* Bet H-P printer is not as profitable as before. The time of selling you a $50 printer but charging you a $30 cartridge is close to be gone if not already gone. I still like H-P laptops with quality keyboards which my grand child cannot destroy by his big foot.

* In many cases, only one company in one industry wins and the rest are losers. As a Chinese saying, you cannot have two tigers in one mountain (unless they're part of the family :)). Turbo Tax is the winner.

* High-tech companies need to plow back a good percent of the profit to research / development to build the next mouse trap. Examples abound. That's why Buffett stays away from the companies without moats. That's why he missed all these companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Google... For the last 5 years, his crown is gone and his myths are debunked as I outlined them.

I'm either very smart or very stupid to argue with the best investor in our generation. However, I have reasons to avoid some of his ideas that are not applicable to retail investors.

* The GM problem will not be ended before the fat lady sings. Same for the banks.

Hello Oct and bye September.

The following are the better posts I wrote on Seeking Alpha.

Random Rant II

The news are repeating as history does.

* Despite its rise in the market, Japan does not look good. All the taxes and low interest rates do not improve the economy. Retail did not jump expecting a pending increase of sales tax. They have the same problem as the USA: the aging population. USA accepts a lot of immigrants (very helpful if selectively done), but not Japan.

* I gave up France (selling my ALU) and Russia (never return as a tourist) long time ago. Why takes Blackstone that long? France is still profiting in selling high tech stuffs esp. to China. No matter how good you're and how much inherited from your parents, working half of the time as others will be a sign of decline.

Chinese tourists are robbed in Paris unproportionally. If you carry a lot of cash and expensive stuffs, you're the target (I believe you guys are smarter than your look, or maybe not). About 1/3 of the line filling orders for the new phone are Asians. That's their class discrimination as they many do not have racial discrimination. Discrimination is a bad but REQUIRED human nature. If everyone is the same, we're communists and do not want to work harder. :)

If you want to be a billionaire like Putin, buy Russia at the bottom and thank me 20 years later. However, who knows the bottom?

* I guess a security issue with the XBox selling to China. PS4 is not ready with games, so the delay is a non-event.

* They should sell two more airplanes to Air Malaysia. This time, with a better black box and anti missile missiles.

* You bet EMC should be doing great with the Cloud computing. Does not seem that way so far.

* HTC cannot afford another mistake. Tablets are losers. How to deal with the high-end Apple (with marketing...) and the $99 Fire (Amazon, give me one for free mentioning here).

* GM should give its current owners a free life insurance coverage. Believe me, you need it and do not cheat your heirs

Random rant

* GM now stands for General Murderer.

* Yes, when we have surplus, we should abandon the income tax. Save me a day in preparing it. Sorry for Turbo Tax if it happens. Dream and reality are far apart.

* Have you watched 60 minutes on the scam on tax returns? It is quite easy to suppress it and it does not take me more than 10 minutes to have a complete solution. Why so hard and so long? Just punish the cheaters for the max., match W-2 forms with tax returns, set up traps to catch the cheaters, match possible clues... As in my last post, the government employees must be not thinking or working.

Apples or blackberries?

The most important metric is their new product (square phone). It could save the company or bankrupt the company. At least it will not be bent and the camera is 13 mp.

RIM or RIP, wait and see.

Another question: More folks like apples or more folks like blackberries?

Governments: US and China

  • At first I thought the two party system is great. Now, I change my mind after seeing you folks arguing each other fighting for your parties.

    Sometimes just 'do it' is better than spending all the time arguing and ensuring political correctness.

    China is heading to be more democratic. If you do not believe me, just compare China today and China 30 years ago. Democracy needs educated citizens. China is there for the big cities, but not for rural areas. When we have too much democracy too fast, there will be chaos.

    Does our generous welfare cause a lot of social ills? If you do not work, you die. Simple! If you do not work due to certain problems, the society should provide a safety net. China is working on that slowly. Hong Kong did that already.

    China is not communist as Dorothy said. Communism ensures everyone gets the same share no matter how hard you work. It encourages folks to be lazy. It is extreme capitalist governed by a party of a handful of 'dictators'.
    Sep 30 10:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Argentina Held In Contempt By NY Judge [View article]
    Yes, you cannot run tablet and laptop in one OS as I suggested many times ago.

    Even a child can tell you it does not work after spending several hours on both machines under the same OS. Where are all the QC folks?
    Sep 30 09:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Argentina Held In Contempt By NY Judge [View article]
    VVG, Agree with you. Microsoft's major problem besides many others is trying to have one OS for both laptop/desktop and tablet. That does not work and they released the OS without any TESTING. A child can tell you it is not working. The management must want to trick the world, get their bonus and be fired by releasing the software without TESTING.

    I need Office and subscription that uses the browser. Chrome is quite good and if you do not need Office, you should have it. Tablet OS concentrate on handling frequent interrupts. Phone software is another one. When you put all 3 into one, it will not work. Microsoft management, wake up from your afternoon laps dreaming how to use the bonus money and hire back all those QC folks you must let go long ago.
    Sep 30 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Argentina Held In Contempt By NY Judge [View article]
    Hong Kong's protest is also called 'umbrella protest" to shield the tearing gas or "mobile phone protest" to serve as candle light ritual. Ironically both are most likely made in China by workers working hard with their heads bowing down and accepting their destiny (or reality).
    Sep 30 08:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Report Abuse |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Argentina Held In Contempt By NY Judge [View article]
    This post was an answer to another post on who benefit from Hong Kong last night. Recycle here.

    Initially during the late 40s, Chinese from Shanghai made good money by forming textile factories in Hong Kong. They bought their expertise in management, money and skills. They exploited the cheap labor of the desperate refugees escaping from the communists. Many of these products were exported to the US (to provide cheap stuffs for the poor).

    After the takeover, Hong Kongese moved the factories to Southern China under Deng's special economical zone policy. From then on, most big money are made in real estate in Hong Kong, a supply and demand reality.

    The Brits made good money by governing HK. The London street sweepers could get high official jobs in HK, plus many 'loots' were returned to Britain. All the big projects including the new airport hired British firms to make big money. There is a general misunderstanding why the slave's GDP per capita passed the master as written by the Stanford professor. It is not the colonial government but the proximity to China.

    Americans never made big money in HK except the Hollywood movies initially; it provided vacation destination for the army during the Vietnam War (remember Suzy Wong). However, it is the HK connection (and Taiwan too) to make China the global factory for American companies and now the middle class is making Americans rich and saved some American companies such as GM.

    China benefits a lot. However, the status of HK will decrease when SH takes over.

Pow P/E and F

It could be a temporary setback for Ford due to many recent development with recalls (seems every car manufacturer has the same problem), currency exchange loss...

Is Ford fundamentally sound? Yes, according to the expected P/E but no according to Pow P/E which takes consideration of Ford's high debt.

For more info on Pow P/E, refer to the following SA article.