Market Timing

Good market timing predicts market direction more than 50% correct of the time. You make a bundle with this percentage in crap and black jack.

We divide into 3 primary areas: secular market (about 20 years interval for the last 3), market cycle (about 4 years interval) and the yearly corrections (about 3 times in a year). Since it is not an exact science, all the numbers are educated guesses based on historical data.

This post concentrates on the last area: yearly correction which is calender based.

* Presidential cycle. Pre-election like 2011 is the best among the 4 year cycle. Post election like 2012 and mid term like 2013 is the worst.

* With exception of a market plunge, last year's loss could be a good indication of this year's gain. 2007 is the market plunge, and 2008 continues the loss to give a good rise in 2009. Not always works this way.

* Seasonal. Best is the period from Nov. 1 to April 30. So is the saying 'Sell in May and Go away'.

* Worst month. September.

* Best 30 days. Dec. 15 to Jan. 15.

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(c) TonyP4 2012. Written in 1/27/12. Last updated in 1/27/12.

Disclaimer:

Do not gamble your money you cannot afford to lose. Past performance is a guideline and does not guarantee future performance.

All my posts are for informational purposes only. I'm not a professional investment counselor. Seek one before you make any investment decision.