Oil

My view as of 1/2015. No one (except God and the Middle East terrorists) can really predict the short-term direction of oil. However, the long-term direction is clear. It will be up. When? One year, two years or three years. I can tell you exactly when when I fix my time machine as illustrated in my book The Art of Investing.

It is based on a simple supply and demand rule in Business 101. The demand is increasing due to the recovering economy and the rising population. The diminishing supply is due to a limited resource especially with today's decreasing investing. Shale gas/oil most likely cannot be profitable at the current price.

I put money where my mouth is. I recommended buying OIL when it was $30 (about the same as today's oil price adjusted to inflation). It went down to $15 or so and the rest is history. When we do not learn from history, we will repeat history